The complex decision process of how to manage vineyards and the surrounding landscape is driven by technical and economic knowledge as well as by traditions, regulations, personal attitudes and societal values. Developing a system dynamic model including the simulation of the dynamic economic, social and environmental impacts in different scenarios for the future in all case-study regions is one of the tasks in SECBIVIT. The inter- and multidisciplinary collaboration between economists, sociologists, and ecologists and the multiple stakeholder involvement at several points in times will allow the design of a system dynamic model to address and capture the whole complexity of socio-economical and ecological aspects of ES in viticulture.
SECBIVIT will use transdisciplinary stakeholder-driven scenario workshops to identify the most relevant direct and indirect drivers modifying the decisions for adopting land-use decisions at the vineyard and landscape scale. SECBIVIT will employ agent-based models (ABMs) to explore the effects of policies onto winegrowers’ decision-making, as it is recognised that an advanced understanding of how humans think and take decisions - thus moving beyond the rational actor paradigm - is crucial for designing appropriate policies. ABMs are a suitable tool for investigating individual decision-making in a virtual laboratory, especially for studying the effects in coupled socio-ecological systems. By explicitly linking wine growers responses to different policies, it will be possible to understand their impact on a broad range of ES and biodiversity. The outcomes of the ABM will be used to develop an integrated decision-support tool integrating available risk prognosis tools with new modules consisting of habitat variables like proportion of semi-natural elements in the vicinity of vineyards which could support pest control services. SECBIVIT will advance the current research on biodiversity and ES in viticultural landscapes.